January's free article
The shy GP factor
I am an ST1 doctor just embarking on the GP Specialty Training
Programme journey. In this role, I was recently asked to speak at a
careers and job application workshop for newly qualified FY1
doctors. The session was jointly presented with a surgical
colleague who began by asking how many people wanted to become a
surgeon. He was pleased to note a significant number of positive
responses and went on to discuss the best route to secure surgical
training.
When I asked the assembled audience of 26 how many wanted to be
GPs, to my surprise only two hands went up.
I decided to perform a small experiment. I asked the audience to
close their eyes. When they had all complied, I repeated the
question. This time, with eyes closed, at least a dozen hands were
raised.
Reflecting on this effect, I was reminded of the 1992 UK general
election. For those unfamiliar with this electoral battle let me
set the scene; the Conservative party was aiming for its 4th term
of office. Margaret Thatcher had been deposed and John Major was on
his soapbox. (Old) Labour was lead by Neil Kinnock and was hoping
to grasp power from the Tories after 13 years in opposition. The
numbers looked good for Labour. Going into polling day the final
opinion polls put Labour ahead by 1%. However the Labour victory
party turned into a wake when the votes were counted to reveal a
Conservative lead of 7.5%, taking 41.9% of the vote to Labour’s
34.4%.
In the aftermath there was much soul searching, and not only by
the Labour party. The pollsters were stung at having got it so
wrong. The Market Research Society held an enquiry to determine the
cause of their very public failure.
They found that many Tory voters had not declared themselves
when asked in opinion polls or even exit polls. This became known
as the ‘Shy Tory Factor’ and changed the way in which opinion polls
were analysed throughout the 1990s.1 It seems that
many Tory voters were, for whatever reason, unhappy to be known as
such, even though they were the electoral majority.
It seems that I may have accidentally discovered the ‘Shy GP
Factor’.
In retrospect, maybe I shouldn’t be surprised. I first had an
inkling of this effect in my first year of medical school. A fellow
student asked me what medical career I was planning. I said that I
had always been keen on general practice.
‘Oh’, she said, ‘You’re the first person I’ve heard admit
that’.
Naively, I hadn’t considered it to be an ‘admission’. Further
evidence arrived during a lecture. A senior hospital consultant
asked our year how many of us were heading for general practice. I
put my hand up, but very few others did.
‘Ridiculous!’ he declared, ‘At least 50% of you in this room
will end up as GPs!’
It was phrased as a threat.
I was undaunted and persevered.
Even now, hospital colleagues often point to my two kids and
smile knowingly. ‘You chose general practice because it’s family
friendly?’
It’s easy to agree to this, general practice is relatively
family friendly.
But that’s not why I chose it. I chose it because I want to be a
GP. I enjoyed my medical student GP placements. I enjoyed my FY2 GP
rotation. I am enjoying working in general practice in my ST1
hybrid job. I just like general practice, OK?
I’m not alone. Last year 8768 people applied to GP specialty
training, chasing 2802 places (G Evans, personal communication,
2008). General practice is certainly the ‘majority’ at present.
So, can we make it easier to ‘come out’?
I suggest that we should because if we draw from the political
parallel I have presented, in the following (1997) election, many
shy Tories abandoned the party altogether.
Matthew Burkes
Reference
1. Ballotpedia.org. Shy
Tory Factor. http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Shy_Tory_Factor
(accessed 8 Dec 2008).
DOI: 10.3399/bjgp09X394905
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